Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be a major political contest across the southern states, with President Bola Tinubu, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi seeking to expand their support bases amid changing party alliances and regional political calculations.
The contest comes as political parties strengthen their structures, engage influential political leaders and prepare for an election expected to be shaped by economic conditions, security concerns, regional interests and voters’ assessments of the current administration.
Tinubu, who won the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is seeking another term, while Atiku is contesting under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Obi is running under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
The three politicians are approaching the southern states with different political advantages, having built their support bases through party structures, regional relationships, previous election results and alliances with influential figures.
In the 2023 election, Tinubu secured victories in Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo and Ondo states in the South-West, while Obi won Lagos, Delta, Edo, Enugu, Anambra, Abia, Imo, Ebonyi and Cross River states, demonstrating the strength of his support across several southern communities.
Atiku’s strongest performance in the South came in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa, where he secured victories under the Peoples Democratic Party, while Tinubu and Obi divided much of the remaining southern electoral support.
Those results provide an important historical reference point, but they do not automatically determine the outcome of the next election because political affiliations, candidates, alliances and public sentiment have continued to change.
Tinubu’s campaign is expected to rely on the APC’s national political structure, its relationships with state-level leaders and the argument that his administration should be given another term to continue its policies and projects.
The ruling party has also benefited from the movement of several governors and political figures into its ranks, a development that could influence grassroots mobilisation and party organisation in different states.
However, the administration faces the challenge of explaining its economic reforms to voters experiencing higher living costs, expensive transportation and pressure on household budgets, issues likely to remain central to the campaign.
Atiku, meanwhile, is seeking to consolidate his existing support and build a broader coalition capable of challenging the incumbent, with the ADC providing the platform for his latest presidential campaign.
His campaign will need to address questions about regional power-sharing, opposition cooperation and the extent to which voters outside his traditional strongholds are prepared to support his candidacy.
The former vice-president has continued to present himself as an alternative to the current administration, while his supporters are expected to focus on economic management, governance and the need for political change.
Obi enters the contest with the backing of supporters associated with the Obidient Movement, whose mobilisation was particularly visible during the 2023 election, when he won several southern states and the Federal Capital Territory.
His current challenge includes maintaining that enthusiasm, strengthening party structures and translating support from his movement into coordinated electoral organisation across the country.
The NDC platform and its political alliances will also be important in determining how effectively Obi can compete in states where the APC and ADC have established networks and influential political figures.
Political observers are also watching the role of governors and former governors, whose local influence, party organisations and relationships with community leaders can shape campaign activities and voter mobilisation.
The movement of prominent politicians between parties has complicated earlier assumptions about regional loyalties, making it increasingly important for the candidates to demonstrate that their support extends beyond established political networks.
The South-West presents a significant arena for Tinubu because of his political roots and the APC’s established presence in the region, while Obi will seek to defend his previous victories and expand his reach in the South-East and South-South.
Atiku’s strategy will involve reaching voters across regional boundaries and persuading Nigerians that his programme can address their concerns regardless of their geopolitical zone.
Beyond party affiliations, the cost of living, employment, infrastructure, electricity supply and public security are likely to influence how voters evaluate the candidates and their campaign promises.
The three camps will therefore need to combine political mobilisation with credible policy proposals that respond to the concerns of residents across the southern states.
Although the 2023 results offer a useful baseline for understanding their previous support, the political landscape ahead of the next election remains fluid, and claims by party officials about expected victories should be treated as campaign positions rather than confirmed outcomes.
As preparations continue, the contest in Southern Nigeria is likely to test the strength of party structures, the durability of political alliances and the ability of each candidate to persuade voters that their plans offer a credible response to the country’s challenges.