Nigeria’s military aviation record has come under renewed scrutiny after at least 10 aircraft crashes and major aviation incidents were recorded between 2021 and October 2026, with at least 68 confirmed or presumed deaths.
The latest incident occurred on October 5, when a Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 aircraft, NAF 931, crashed in the Igbokoda area of Ilaje Local Government Area, Ondo State, killing all 25 people on board.
The aircraft was travelling from Benin City, Edo State, to Lagos on a routine mission when air traffic controllers lost contact with it at about 9:13am.
The Nigerian Air Force later confirmed that the aircraft was carrying 20 passengers and five crew members, all of whom died in the crash.
The tragedy has intensified calls from aviation stakeholders for a comprehensive review of military aviation safety systems, covering aircraft maintenance, airworthiness, operational procedures, safety oversight and accident investigation.
Aviation analyst and Aviation Round Table member Olumide Ohunayo said the frequency of military aircraft accidents indicated the need for the Nigerian Air Force to reassess its existing safety systems.
Ohunayo argued that regardless of variations in the figures used to measure military aviation accidents, the number of crashes and fatalities pointed to a serious safety concern that required institutional attention.
He also called for closer cooperation between the Nigerian Air Force, the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority and the Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau in efforts to reduce future accidents.
According to him, military aviation should not be treated as completely separate from the wider national aviation safety system when public assets and the lives of Nigerian personnel are repeatedly being lost.
He urged the Air Force to review its operational manuals, procedures and processes while involving aviation regulators, accident investigators and other professionals in identifying weaknesses.
The expert also proposed a wider safety audit covering military and paramilitary aviation operations, including organisations whose aviation activities are not currently subject to the full regulatory framework of the NCAA.
The calls come against the background of several military aircraft losses recorded since 2021, many of which occurred during different types of operations and therefore cannot automatically be attributed to one common cause.
In February 2021, a Nigerian Air Force Beechcraft King Air 350i crashed shortly after take-off from Abuja while heading towards Minna, killing all seven military personnel on board.
A month later, an Alpha Jet conducting operations in Borno State disappeared from radar, with its wreckage later found in Sambisa Forest and its two pilots presumed dead.
In May 2021, another King Air 350 crashed near Kaduna International Airport, killing 11 people, including the then Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Ibrahim Attahiru.
The 2021 losses continued when an Alpha Jet was shot down in Zamfara State in July, although its pilot survived after ejecting from the aircraft.
The Nigerian Air Force recorded further incidents in 2022 and 2023, including the crash of a Super Mushshak trainer aircraft in Kaduna that killed two pilots and the loss of an FT-7NI trainer aircraft in Makurdi, Benue State, in which both pilots survived.
In August 2023, a Mi-171 helicopter carrying out a casualty evacuation mission crashed in Shiroro Local Government Area of Niger State, killing 11 people.
A Mi-35P helicopter subsequently crashed shortly after take-off from the Nigerian Air Force Base in Port Harcourt in December 2023, although all five crew members survived.
The Air Force also recorded non-fatal aircraft losses in later years, including an Alpha Jet emergency during a post-inspection functional check flight in 2025 and the loss of a CH-4B unmanned aircraft during a surveillance operation in Niger State in January 2026.
The incidents have taken place during combat missions, training, routine flights, casualty evacuation, surveillance and post-maintenance checks, making it difficult to identify a single explanation for the pattern without examining each accident individually.
Punch’s analysis noted that the available figures do not establish that maintenance failure or mechanical problems caused the crashes, particularly because investigations into individual incidents can produce different findings.
The Nigerian Safety Investigation Bureau’s statutory mandate is to investigate transportation accidents and serious incidents to determine circumstances and causes and issue safety recommendations aimed at preventing recurrence rather than assigning blame.
Nigeria has previously demonstrated the value of cooperation between military and civilian aviation investigators, including the 2021 King Air 350 investigation in which the then Accident Investigation Bureau worked jointly with the Nigerian Air Force and produced initial safety recommendations.
The AIB said at the time that such collaboration could make investigations more transparent and help close safety gaps between military and civilian aviation operations.
Another aviation expert, Group Captain John Ojikutu, said the safety discussion should also consider the growing demands placed on the military as it continues to perform extensive internal security operations.
He questioned the extent to which military aviation resources are being used for counter-insurgency, surveillance, casualty evacuation and other domestic security responsibilities, suggesting that the wider security architecture also deserves scrutiny.
Attention has also turned to the aircraft involved in the latest crash, with Punch reporting that NAF 931 was one of two ATR-42-500MP aircraft acquired by Nigeria from Italian manufacturer Alenia Aeronautica under a $73 million contract signed in 2007.
The aircraft was delivered to Nigeria in March 2010 and had been used primarily for maritime patrol, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations, as well as search-and-rescue and limited transport missions.
Reports indicate that NAF 931 underwent maintenance at Rheinland Air Service in Germany in 2022 before returning to Nigeria in late 2024, although the aircraft’s maintenance history alone does not establish what caused the October 5 crash.
Recovery operations have also been complicated by the swampy terrain around the crash site, forcing authorities in Ondo State to deploy specialised swamp buggies after conventional vehicles and boats struggled to reach the submerged wreckage.
Following the tragedy, President Bola Tinubu ordered an investigation into the crash and declared three days of national mourning for the military personnel and other victims.
The Defence Headquarters also directed an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the accident as authorities work to establish what happened and identify measures that could prevent similar tragedies.
As investigations continue, aviation stakeholders are urging the government and military to treat the latest crash as an opportunity for a broader evidence-based review of military aviation safety rather than drawing conclusions before individual accident investigations are completed.