The World Bank has confirmed that Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms are beginning to yield measurable results, with steady growth, easing inflation, and improved fiscal stability. However, the institution has issued a stark warning — millions of Nigerian children are being left behind, posing a serious threat to the country’s long-term development.
These findings were presented on April 7, 2026, in Abuja during the launch of the latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU), titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.” The report provides one of the most comprehensive assessments of Nigeria’s economy since the reform agenda of Bola Ahmed Tinubu began.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy recorded a 4.0% growth rate in 2025, maintaining momentum from the previous year. The expansion was driven largely by the services sector, including ICT, financial services, and real estate. Inflation also declined significantly to 15.1% year-on-year in February 2026, down from 26.3% recorded a year earlier, reflecting tighter monetary policy, improved exchange rate stability, and better food supply conditions.
In another key development, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade, signalling improved fiscal discipline. Although the fiscal deficit widened slightly to 3.1% of GDP in 2025, it remains below pre-reform levels, indicating relative stability in government finances.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects that Nigeria’s economy will grow at an average of 4.2% annually between 2026 and 2028.
The outlook is described as cautiously optimistic, contingent on sustained macroeconomic stability, continued reforms, and structural improvements across key sectors.
Despite these positive indicators, the report emphasises that the benefits of reforms are not yet reaching everyday Nigerians at the pace required. Persistently high inflation, although declining, continues to erode purchasing power, particularly for low-income households.
The report’s most urgent concern, however, lies in early childhood development. The World Bank describes the situation as a national crisis, revealing that approximately 110 out of every 1,000 Nigerian children die before the age of five. Around 40% of children under five are stunted due to malnutrition, while 52% are not developmentally on track before entering school.
These challenges are most severe in poorer communities and northern regions, where access to healthcare, nutrition, sanitation, and early learning opportunities remains limited. The institution warns that without immediate intervention, these conditions could undermine Nigeria’s future workforce and long-term economic productivity.
The World Bank stresses that investing in early childhood development — including nutrition, healthcare, education, and safe environments — is critical to translating current economic gains into sustainable, inclusive growth.
Nigeria’s reform programme, which includes subsidy removal, exchange rate adjustments, and fiscal restructuring, has received international recognition for its boldness. However, experts note that reforms must now be complemented by targeted social investments to ensure inclusive outcomes.
External risks also remain. Global geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could influence oil prices — potentially boosting Nigeria’s revenue while simultaneously increasing costs of energy, fertilisers, and logistics.
The World Bank advises the government to manage these risks carefully by saving windfall revenues and maintaining policy discipline.
For millions of Nigerians, the report presents a mixed reality: progress at the macroeconomic level, but continued hardship at the household level. The challenge ahead lies in bridging this gap — ensuring that economic stability translates into real improvements in living standards and opportunities.
As Nigeria continues its reform journey, the message is clear — growth alone is not enough. Without urgent investment in its youngest population, the country risks compromising the very future those reforms are meant to secure.